Prospective analysis of low flows in a climate change context in West Africa: case of the N’zo-Sassandra watershed (West of Côte d’Ivoire)

The objective of this study is to analyze the prospective low water flows N'zo-Sassandra River located in West Ivory Coast. hydroclimatic data used (rainfall, ETP, flow) extend on one hand over historical period (1961-2017) and other future 2071-2100 (CORDEX data). methodological approach adopted based analysis past flows, climate hydrological analysis. impact variable annual minimum monthly mean flow (MAMF). Thus, a pessimistic forecast scenario was (RCP 8.5.). This then fed into rainfall-runoff model (GR2M model) calibrated 1961-1990 reference validated 1991-2017 period. In response forcing, low-flow rates (MAMF) were simulated. An increase number class ]0-4] m3/s observed, reflecting 2071–2100-time frame. best statistical law retained following frequency low-water lognormal law. By 2071-2100, decrease rainfall (-19.2%) an temperature (+3.9°C) are predicted watershed. Frequent estimated from have shown bias -50.38%, which translates half frequent by end 21st century compared current will consequences availability resources for irrigation, fishing, breeding, drinking supply, navigation, etc. why we propose as alternative agricultural needs, groundwater less impacted global changes.